Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-10-12 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 55.7%

FLA: 44.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.00

FLA: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

FLA

J. Markstrom

Stat	BUF	FLA
Season SV%	0.895	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	23	20	3	87.0%	3.54	2	0.54
FLA	J. Markstrom	32	27	5	84.4%	3.73	6	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BUF at home vs FLA: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	BUF 5 - 3 FLA	BUF	BUF
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	3	1.47
1	FLA	14	0	0.61
2	BUF	15	1	1.03
2	FLA	14	1	1.67
3	BUF	12	2	1.23
3	FLA	18	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown