Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-10-12 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 71.6%

OTT: 28.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.70

OTT: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	NJD	OTT
Season SV%	0.939	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	1.60	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Nico Daws	20	16	4	80.0%	3.91	3	-0.09
OTT	Linus Ullmark	30	29	1	96.7%	2.90	0	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • NJD at home vs OTT: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	NJD 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	NJD
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	OTT
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	8	0	0.65
1	OTT	9	0	0.47
2	NJD	17	0	0.71
2	OTT	16	0	1.21
3	NJD	24	0	1.55
3	OTT	6	3	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown