Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-10-12 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 28.6%

VGK: 71.4%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.14

VGK: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	MIN	VGK
Season SV%	0.928	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	23	21	2	91.3%	2.85	0	0.85
VGK	Carter Hart	28	24	4	85.7%	4.25	3	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • MIN at home vs VGK: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	MIN 4 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	MIN
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	12	0	0.91
1	VGK	13	0	1.05
2	MIN	23	1	1.60
2	VGK	10	0	0.41
3	MIN	13	2	1.74
3	VGK	21	0	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown