New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 New Jersey Devils (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 51.2%

NJD: 48.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.19

NJD: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	DET	NJD
Season SV%	0.893	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	37	32	5	86.5%	4.79	7	-0.21
NJD	Jake Allen	27	23	4	85.2%	2.14	1	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • DET at home vs NJD: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	6	0	0.27
1	NJD	24	3	1.82
2	DET	16	0	1.11
2	NJD	17	3	2.05
3	DET	17	1	0.77
3	NJD	11	0	0.63
4	DET	0	0	0.00
4	NJD	1	1	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1