Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 63.2%

BUF: 36.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.45

BUF: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.904	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	18	14	4	77.8%	3.13	3	-0.87
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	41	35	6	85.4%	5.76	3	-0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • MTL at home vs BUF: 7-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	0.95
1	BUF	11	0	0.75
2	MTL	13	0	0.63
2	BUF	5	0	0.22
3	MTL	15	0	0.91
3	BUF	11	2	1.22
4	MTL	5	0	0.68
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
5	MTL	3	3	2.58
5	BUF	1	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7