Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 73.4%

WSH: 26.6%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.89

WSH: 2.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	CAR	WSH
Season SV%	0.899	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	22	20	2	90.9%	2.47	1	0.47
WSH	Logan Thompson	35	31	4	88.6%	4.75	2	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • CAR at home vs WSH: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CAR 4 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR
2026-10-02	CAR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	CAR
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	12	0	0.55
1	WSH	18	1	1.53
2	CAR	23	1	2.04
2	WSH	7	0	0.47
3	CAR	19	1	2.17
3	WSH	8	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown