Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 35.6%

TBL: 64.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.67

TBL: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NYR	TBL
Season SV%	0.000	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Dylan Garand	26	25	1	96.2%	2.43	0	1.43
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	19	4	82.6%	2.98	2	-1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • NYR at home vs TBL: 9-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	NYR 4 - 1 TBL	NYR	TBL
2026-10-01	NYR 5 - 1 TBL	NYR	NYR
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	1	1.03
1	TBL	16	0	0.86
2	NYR	11	0	0.82
2	TBL	16	0	1.01
3	NYR	9	1	1.13
3	TBL	10	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown