St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 7 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 47.9%

STL: 52.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.92

STL: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

S. Ersson

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	OTT	STL
Season SV%	—	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	S. Ersson	26	19	7	73.1%	3.47	1	-3.53
STL	Joel Hofer	17	15	2	88.2%	1.72	1	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs STL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	OTT 2 - 7 STL	STL	STL
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	STL
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	0	0.58
1	STL	9	1	1.26
2	OTT	9	1	0.70
2	STL	15	0	1.28
3	OTT	7	0	0.43
3	STL	17	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown