Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 68.2%

VAN: 31.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.47

VAN: 2.40

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VAN

L. Meriläinen

Stat	NYI	VAN
Season SV%	0.910	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	24	2	92.3%	2.92	3	0.92
VAN	L. Meriläinen	38	35	3	92.1%	3.06	0	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • NYI at home vs VAN: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	NYI 3 - 2 VAN	NYI	NYI
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.88
1	VAN	12	0	0.98
2	NYI	10	0	0.79
2	VAN	18	1	1.09
3	NYI	23	0	1.39
3	VAN	11	2	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown