Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (74% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 26.0%

PIT: 74.0%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.32

PIT: 3.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

Stat	CHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.909	0.932
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	1.53

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	27	24	3	88.9%	3.96	3	0.96
PIT	Sergei Murashov	20	15	5	75.0%	3.22	2	-1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CHI at home vs PIT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CHI 5 - 3 PIT	CHI	PIT
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	9	0	0.82
1	PIT	11	0	0.57
2	CHI	8	0	0.58
2	PIT	20	0	1.92
3	CHI	9	2	1.82
3	PIT	14	3	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown