Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Delta Center

Utah Mammoth 5 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 70.9%

TOR: 29.1%

Expected Goals

UTA: 4.05

TOR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	UTA	TOR
Season SV%	0.895	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	22	4	84.6%	2.94	2	-1.06
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	23	5	82.1%	2.48	0	-2.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • UTA at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	TOR 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-10-13	UTA 5 - 4 TOR	UTA	UTA
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	10	0	0.45
1	TOR	13	0	0.71
2	UTA	18	0	1.23
2	TOR	10	1	1.01
3	UTA	13	0	0.79
3	TOR	17	1	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown