Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-10-13 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 55.1%

CGY: 44.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.46

CGY: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	ANA	CGY
Season SV%	0.888	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	36	32	4	88.9%	4.75	2	0.75
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	23	2	92.0%	3.06	1	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-06	CGY 3 - 5 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-10-13	ANA 2 - 4 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-10-10	CGY 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	11	1	0.73
1	CGY	21	0	1.43
2	ANA	21	0	1.21
2	CGY	8	0	0.75
3	ANA	18	0	1.12
3	CGY	24	2	2.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown