Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 50.5%

MTL: 49.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.32

MTL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	WSH	MTL
Season SV%	0.887	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.07	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	30	26	4	86.7%	3.37	4	-0.63
MTL	Jakub Dobes	23	18	5	78.3%	3.86	4	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • WSH at home vs MTL: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-14	WSH 5 - 4 MTL	WSH	WSH
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.80
1	MTL	15	1	0.95
2	WSH	11	0	0.84
2	MTL	20	3	1.65
3	WSH	16	4	2.22
3	MTL	15	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown