Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-14 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 61.5%

DAL: 38.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.42

DAL: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	COL	DAL
Season SV%	0.919	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	25	21	4	84.0%	3.15	3	-0.85
DAL	Casey DeSmith	31	28	3	90.3%	3.66	2	0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • COL at home vs DAL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-14	COL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-10-13	DAL 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.58
1	DAL	8	0	0.37
2	COL	11	0	0.57
2	DAL	16	0	0.74
3	COL	17	1	1.26
3	DAL	6	1	0.50
4	COL	1	0	0.09
4	DAL	2	0	0.17
5	COL	4	1	1.16
5	DAL	4	2	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7