Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-10-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 37.1%

BUF: 62.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.81

BUF: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	TOR	BUF
Season SV%	—	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	34	29	5	85.3%	2.73	0	-2.27
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	30	26	4	86.7%	2.76	1	-1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • TOR at home vs BUF: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-15	TOR 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	1	1.43
1	BUF	12	0	0.67
2	TOR	16	0	1.13
2	BUF	18	0	1.13
3	TOR	5	0	0.15
3	BUF	16	0	0.55
4	TOR	1	0	0.05
4	BUF	3	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6