New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-10-15 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 New York Islanders (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 52.8%

NYI: 47.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.87

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	OTT	NYI
Season SV%	0.881	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	22	1	95.7%	2.01	1	1.01
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	21	19	2	90.5%	4.08	2	2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs NYI: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-15	OTT 2 - 1 NYI	OTT	OTT
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	0	0.38
1	NYI	7	0	0.34
2	OTT	15	1	1.87
2	NYI	14	1	0.90
3	OTT	5	0	0.25
3	NYI	12	0	0.39
4	OTT	5	0	0.48
4	NYI	4	0	0.23
5	OTT	3	1	1.10
5	NYI	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 2.7