Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-15 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 70.8%

PHI: 29.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.84

PHI: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

D. Tarasov

PHI

J. Woll

Stat	DET	PHI
Season SV%	—	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	D. Tarasov	18	17	1	94.4%	2.44	2	1.44
PHI	J. Woll	26	24	2	92.3%	3.81	4	1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • DET at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-15	DET 2 - 1 PHI	DET	DET
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	0	1.04
1	PHI	8	1	1.16
2	DET	19	3	1.87
2	PHI	9	1	0.58
3	DET	11	1	0.90
3	PHI	10	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown