Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-15 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Seattle Kraken (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 76.1%

SEA: 23.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.98

SEA: 2.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	TBL	SEA
Season SV%	0.913	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	24	3	88.9%	2.76	1	-0.24
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	35	31	4	88.6%	3.57	2	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs SEA: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-15	TBL 4 - 3 SEA	TBL	TBL
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	1	1.28
1	SEA	14	1	1.06
2	TBL	15	0	1.17
2	SEA	15	0	0.89
3	TBL	11	0	0.59
3	SEA	10	0	0.77
4	TBL	3	1	0.53
4	SEA	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 4.0 - 2.3