St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-10-15 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 49.7%

STL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.93

STL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	MIN	STL
Season SV%	0.928	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	25	21	4	84.0%	3.20	3	-0.80
STL	Joel Hofer	38	33	5	86.8%	4.74	5	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MIN at home vs STL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-15	MIN 5 - 4 STL	MIN	STL
2026-04-13	STL 6 - 3 MIN	STL	STL
2026-03-01	MIN 1 - 3 STL	STL	MIN
2025-10-09	STL 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-03-15	MIN 1 - 5 STL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	1	1.21
1	STL	12	1	0.95
2	MIN	20	1	1.43
2	STL	11	0	0.61
3	MIN	18	3	2.10
3	STL	13	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown