Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-10-15 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 72.9%

CGY: 27.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.95

CGY: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	VGK	CGY
Season SV%	0.883	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	30	28	2	93.3%	3.35	2	1.35
CGY	Dustin Wolf	33	27	6	81.8%	4.14	2	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • VGK at home vs CGY: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-15	VGK 6 - 2 CGY	VGK	VGK
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	7	0	0.43
1	CGY	13	2	0.98
2	VGK	26	1	2.33
2	CGY	12	0	0.91
3	VGK	9	1	1.39
3	CGY	23	0	1.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown