Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 56.1%

PIT: 43.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.50

PIT: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	COL	PIT
Season SV%	0.924	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	29	2	93.5%	3.45	3	1.45
PIT	Arturs Silovs	32	27	5	84.4%	5.57	7	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • COL at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-16	COL 5 - 2 PIT	COL	COL
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	1	0.86
1	PIT	21	2	1.64
2	COL	25	2	1.96
2	PIT	18	0	0.97
3	COL	14	4	2.75
3	PIT	12	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown