New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 32.4%

NJD: 67.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.80

NJD: 3.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	WSH	NJD
Season SV%	0.913	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	29	2	93.5%	4.00	3	2.00
NJD	Jake Allen	25	21	4	84.0%	2.43	2	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 35% • WSH at home vs NJD: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	WSH 4 - 2 NJD	WSH	NJD
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	1	0.78
1	NJD	14	2	1.11
2	WSH	16	1	1.17
2	NJD	9	0	0.65
3	WSH	7	0	0.48
3	NJD	33	1	2.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown