Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 78.1%

VAN: 21.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.81

VAN: 2.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

D. Hildeby

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	TBL	VAN
Season SV%	—	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	D. Hildeby	14	12	2	85.7%	1.71	0	-0.29
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	35	31	4	88.6%	5.29	6	1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • TBL at home vs VAN: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	TBL 4 - 2 VAN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	1	1.25
1	VAN	11	0	0.70
2	TBL	22	1	1.58
2	VAN	10	0	0.77
3	TBL	14	4	2.47
3	VAN	6	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown