New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 50.3%

NYI: 49.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.13

NYI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	TOR	NYI
Season SV%	—	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	20	16	4	80.0%	2.39	3	-1.61
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	28	1	96.6%	3.16	1	2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NYI: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	TOR 1 - 4 NYI	NYI	TOR
2026-09-30	TOR 2 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	1.07
1	NYI	14	1	0.89
2	TOR	10	0	0.64
2	NYI	14	1	0.74
3	TOR	17	0	1.45
3	NYI	7	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown