Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 53.0%

BUF: 47.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.01

BUF: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.904	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	26	23	3	88.5%	3.38	4	0.38
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	30	4	88.2%	3.89	1	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • MTL at home vs BUF: 7-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	1.01
1	BUF	8	1	0.63
2	MTL	21	1	1.79
2	BUF	15	2	1.46
3	MTL	15	0	0.84
3	BUF	15	1	1.10
4	MTL	2	0	0.25
4	BUF	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8