San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 63.9%

SJS: 36.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.68

SJS: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	DET	SJS
Season SV%	0.893	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	37	34	3	91.9%	4.39	3	1.39
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	29	25	4	86.2%	3.98	2	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs SJS: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	DET 4 - 3 SJS	DET	DET
2026-01-16	DET 4 - 2 SJS	DET	DET
2025-11-02	SJS 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-01-14	DET 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	DET
2024-11-18	SJS 5 - 4 DET	SJS	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.90
1	SJS	25	2	1.62
2	DET	14	0	0.74
2	SJS	13	0	0.76
3	DET	14	1	1.14
3	SJS	13	1	0.98
4	DET	1	0	0.11
4	SJS	7	0	0.75
5	DET	3	1	1.09
5	SJS	3	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8