Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 57.3%

OTT: 42.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.19

OTT: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	PHI	OTT
Season SV%	0.910	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	26	25	1	96.2%	2.63	1	1.63
OTT	Linus Ullmark	28	25	3	89.3%	2.52	3	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • PHI at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	PHI 3 - 1 OTT	PHI	PHI
2026-10-08	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	20	0	0.96
1	OTT	10	0	0.60
2	PHI	15	2	0.93
2	OTT	11	0	0.86
3	PHI	4	1	0.62
3	OTT	15	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown