Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • Delta Center

Utah Mammoth 2 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 72.8%

EDM: 27.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.73

EDM: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	UTA	EDM
Season SV%	0.895	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	21	15	6	71.4%	2.80	4	-3.20
EDM	Tristan Jarry	28	26	2	92.9%	2.80	1	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs EDM: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	UTA 2 - 6 EDM	EDM	UTA
2026-10-15	EDM 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-04-07	UTA 6 - 5 EDM	UTA	EDM
2026-03-24	UTA 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-28	EDM 6 - 3 UTA	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	10	0	0.89
1	EDM	13	1	0.89
2	UTA	15	1	0.92
2	EDM	17	1	1.35
3	UTA	17	0	0.99
3	EDM	6	2	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown