Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-10-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 68.8%

PIT: 31.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.81

PIT: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

Stat	VGK	PIT
Season SV%	0.888	0.932
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	1.53

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	24	22	2	91.7%	3.48	3	1.48
PIT	Sergei Murashov	20	14	6	70.0%	3.11	2	-2.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PIT: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	PIT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	PIT
2026-10-17	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	1	1.15
1	PIT	13	2	1.04
2	VGK	12	0	0.50
2	PIT	12	0	0.75
3	VGK	8	1	1.46
3	PIT	15	1	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown