Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-10-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 37.7%

CAR: 62.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.91

CAR: 3.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	CGY	CAR
Season SV%	0.914	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	36	34	2	94.4%	4.11	0	2.11
CAR	Brandon Bussi	34	31	3	91.2%	3.42	3	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • CGY at home vs CAR: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-18	CGY 3 - 2 CAR	CGY	CAR
2026-03-07	CGY 5 - 4 CAR	CGY	CGY
2025-11-30	CAR 1 - 0 CGY	CAR	CAR
2025-03-02	CAR 2 - 1 CGY	CAR	CAR
2024-10-24	CGY 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	0	0.42
1	CAR	22	0	1.60
2	CGY	15	0	0.73
2	CAR	21	0	1.46
3	CGY	17	3	2.28
3	CAR	21	0	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown