Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-10-19 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 30.7%

COL: 69.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.43

COL: 3.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

J. Woll

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	PHI	COL
Season SV%	—	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	J. Woll	26	24	2	92.3%	2.21	0	0.21
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	24	21	3	87.5%	3.34	6	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs COL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-19	PHI 3 - 2 COL	PHI	COL
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	COL
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	5	1.94
1	COL	10	0	0.57
2	PHI	9	0	0.59
2	COL	15	0	0.64
3	PHI	8	1	0.81
3	COL	17	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown