San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-10-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 56.4%

SJS: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.47

SJS: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	TOR	SJS
Season SV%	—	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	31	30	1	96.8%	3.61	1	2.61
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	32	29	3	90.6%	4.00	1	1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs SJS: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-19	TOR 3 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	TOR
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	1.13
1	SJS	15	0	1.22
2	TOR	20	0	1.30
2	SJS	18	1	1.20
3	TOR	20	1	1.57
3	SJS	14	0	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown