San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 70.8%

SJS: 29.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.92

SJS: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	MTL	SJS
Season SV%	0.889	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	30	26	4	86.7%	2.97	2	-1.03
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	34	31	3	91.2%	3.25	2	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • MTL at home vs SJS: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	MTL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	0	1.19
1	SJS	13	1	0.99
2	MTL	16	1	1.20
2	SJS	14	0	0.70
3	MTL	19	1	0.87
3	SJS	12	1	1.07
4	MTL	0	0	0.00
4	SJS	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.6