Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 65.3%

ANA: 34.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.39

ANA: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	NYI	ANA
Season SV%	0.910	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	17	15	2	88.2%	2.00	0	-0.00
ANA	Lukas Dostal	25	22	3	88.0%	5.29	5	2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs ANA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	NYI 3 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2026-03-04	ANA 5 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2025-12-11	NYI 5 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2025-03-09	ANA 4 - 1 NYI	ANA	ANA
2024-10-29	NYI 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	22	4	2.67
1	ANA	10	0	0.79
2	NYI	18	1	1.72
2	ANA	14	0	0.64
3	NYI	13	0	0.90
3	ANA	7	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown