Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 61.8%

LAK: 38.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.29

LAK: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	WSH	LAK
Season SV%	0.913	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	21	5	80.8%	3.31	4	-1.69
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	32	30	2	93.8%	4.56	3	2.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • WSH at home vs LAK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	WSH 2 - 5 LAK	LAK	WSH
2025-12-02	LAK 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	LAK
2025-11-17	WSH 2 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2025-03-13	LAK 3 - 0 WSH	LAK	LAK
2024-12-22	WSH 3 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	1.28
1	LAK	10	0	0.84
2	WSH	13	0	0.97
2	LAK	14	1	1.21
3	WSH	23	2	2.31
3	LAK	9	3	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown