Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 63.0%

TOR: 37.0%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.47

TOR: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	CBJ	TOR
Season SV%	0.909	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	22	16	6	72.7%	2.91	3	-3.09
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	37	35	2	94.6%	3.36	2	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • CBJ at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	CBJ 2 - 6 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	11	1	0.89
1	TOR	18	2	1.87
2	CBJ	18	0	0.98
2	TOR	14	0	0.76
3	CBJ	19	1	1.49
3	TOR	3	1	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown