Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Boston Bruins (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 56.7%

BOS: 43.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.19

BOS: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	DAL	BOS
Season SV%	0.907	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	20	18	2	90.0%	2.08	1	0.08
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	22	3	88.0%	3.79	4	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • DAL at home vs BOS: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	DAL 3 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2026-03-31	BOS 6 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL
2026-01-20	DAL 6 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-11-14	DAL 7 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-10-24	BOS 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	18	0	1.24
1	BOS	10	0	0.84
2	DAL	14	2	1.24
2	BOS	13	1	1.04
3	DAL	4	0	0.38
3	BOS	6	0	0.20
4	DAL	6	2	0.93
4	BOS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8