Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 43.2%

DET: 56.8%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.98

DET: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

DET

D. Tarasov

Stat	SEA	DET
Season SV%	0.920	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	29	25	4	86.2%	3.80	2	-0.20
DET	D. Tarasov	31	26	5	83.9%	4.34	3	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SEA at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	SEA 4 - 3 DET	SEA	DET
2026-10-09	DET 3 - 6 SEA	SEA	DET
2025-12-06	SEA 3 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2025-11-18	DET 4 - 2 SEA	DET	DET
2025-02-04	SEA 4 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	13	0	0.80
1	DET	13	0	0.48
2	SEA	16	1	1.07
2	DET	15	0	0.51
3	SEA	6	0	0.54
3	DET	24	1	1.55
4	SEA	2	0	0.07
4	DET	1	0	0.07
5	SEA	4	2	1.86
5	DET	4	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4