Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-10-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 46.8%

TBL: 53.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.11

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	VGK	TBL
Season SV%	0.883	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	21	15	6	71.4%	2.68	2	-3.32
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	32	2	94.1%	4.16	4	2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • VGK at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-20	VGK 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	2	1.36
1	TBL	14	0	0.86
2	VGK	22	1	1.52
2	TBL	14	1	1.16
3	VGK	14	1	1.28
3	TBL	10	1	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown