Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-10-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 72.0%

PHI: 28.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.82

PHI: 2.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	BUF	PHI
Season SV%	0.903	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	23	3	88.5%	3.55	4	0.55
PHI	Dan Vladar	28	27	1	96.4%	3.48	3	2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs PHI: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-21	BUF 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	BUF
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	21	2	1.80
1	PHI	14	2	1.06
2	BUF	11	1	1.06
2	PHI	14	2	1.52
3	BUF	8	0	0.62
3	PHI	11	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown