Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-10-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 43.1%

FLA: 56.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.82

FLA: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

FLA

A. Schmid

Stat	OTT	FLA
Season SV%	0.881	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	19	18	1	94.7%	1.64	0	0.64
FLA	A. Schmid	30	25	5	83.3%	2.56	1	-2.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • OTT at home vs FLA: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-21	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	FLA
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.91
1	FLA	9	0	0.81
2	OTT	14	0	0.96
2	FLA	11	0	0.54
3	OTT	11	1	0.70
3	FLA	6	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown