New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 48.6%

NYR: 51.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.17

NYR: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	TOR	NYR
Season SV%	—	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	25	21	4	84.0%	2.15	1	-1.85
NYR	Dylan Garand	35	30	5	85.7%	3.19	2	-1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs NYR: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	TOR 5 - 4 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.91
1	NYR	9	0	0.37
2	TOR	25	1	1.60
2	NYR	17	1	1.10
3	TOR	19	0	0.67
3	NYR	15	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown