San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 50.0%

SJS: 50.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.93

SJS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

S. Ersson

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	OTT	SJS
Season SV%	—	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	S. Ersson	28	22	6	78.6%	3.94	3	-2.06
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	43	41	2	95.3%	5.03	4	3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs SJS: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	SJS 1 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-10-22	OTT 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	OTT
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	2	1.36
1	SJS	21	0	1.07
2	OTT	28	1	2.21
2	SJS	17	1	1.20
3	OTT	25	1	1.45
3	SJS	6	2	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown