Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 57.0%

LAK: 43.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.88

LAK: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	NYI	LAK
Season SV%	0.000	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	27	24	3	88.9%	3.75	7	0.75
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	43	41	2	95.3%	3.25	1	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs LAK: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	NYI 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	NYI
2026-03-13	NYI 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2026-03-05	LAK 5 - 3 NYI	LAK	LAK
2025-03-11	LAK 4 - 1 NYI	LAK	LAK
2024-12-10	NYI 1 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	20	1	1.35
1	LAK	11	2	1.03
2	NYI	24	0	1.37
2	LAK	14	3	1.33
3	NYI	11	0	0.51
3	LAK	19	2	1.21
4	NYI	1	0	0.03
4	LAK	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.9 - 2.5