Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 6 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 47.5%

VGK: 52.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.11

VGK: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	STL	VGK
Season SV%	0.901	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	29	27	2	93.1%	2.70	0	0.70
VGK	Adin Hill	31	25	6	80.6%	2.59	0	-3.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • STL at home vs VGK: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	STL 6 - 2 VGK	STL	VGK
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	STL	12	1.13
1	VGK	13	0.70
2	STL	15	0.89
2	VGK	18	1.34
3	STL	12	0.56
3	VGK	17	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown