Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 61.0%

WPG: 39.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.45

WPG: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

S. Skinner

Stat	DAL	WPG
Season SV%	0.907	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	19	17	2	89.5%	2.48	2	0.48
WPG	S. Skinner	38	35	3	92.1%	4.01	2	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DAL at home vs WPG: 11-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	DAL 3 - 2 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	0	1.18
1	WPG	9	0	0.52
2	DAL	18	1	1.56
2	WPG	10	2	1.30
3	DAL	15	1	1.01
3	WPG	6	0	0.42
4	DAL	2	0	0.27
4	WPG	2	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8