Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 43.2%

MIN: 56.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.17

MIN: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	CGY	MIN
Season SV%	0.914	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	37	36	1	97.3%	3.90	4	2.90
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	22	20	2	90.9%	2.27	3	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CGY at home vs MIN: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	CGY 2 - 1 MIN	CGY	MIN
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	2	1.40
1	MIN	15	1	0.74
2	CGY	9	0	0.32
2	MIN	13	1	0.71
3	CGY	5	1	0.55
3	MIN	27	2	2.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown