Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 40.4%

CAR: 59.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.95

CAR: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

D. Levi

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	EDM	CAR
Season SV%	—	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	D. Levi	28	23	5	82.1%	3.15	2	-1.85
CAR	Brandon Bussi	24	18	6	75.0%	3.81	2	-2.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • EDM at home vs CAR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	EDM 6 - 5 CAR	EDM	CAR
2026-03-06	EDM 3 - 6 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-15	CAR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	CAR
2025-03-01	CAR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	CAR
2024-10-22	EDM 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	9	0	0.50
1	CAR	10	1	0.52
2	EDM	12	1	0.87
2	CAR	16	1	1.41
3	EDM	17	0	1.50
3	CAR	14	0	0.76
4	EDM	1	0	0.08
4	CAR	2	0	0.20
5	EDM	3	1	0.86
5	CAR	3	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5