Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-10-22 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 5 - 3 Utah Mammoth

🚨 Upset Win (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 29.3%

UTA: 70.7%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.63

UTA: 3.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	SEA	UTA
Season SV%	0.920	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	36	33	3	91.7%	2.88	1	-0.12
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	23	18	5	78.3%	3.19	2	-1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • SEA at home vs UTA: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-22	SEA 5 - 3 UTA	SEA	UTA
2026-04-02	SEA 2 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-17	UTA 6 - 3 SEA	UTA	UTA
2025-12-12	UTA 5 - 3 SEA	UTA	UTA
2025-04-08	UTA 7 - 1 SEA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	14	0	0.94
1	UTA	13	1	0.93
2	SEA	15	0	0.74
2	UTA	21	0	1.18
3	SEA	10	2	1.51
3	UTA	18	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown