Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-10-23 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 29.7%

MTL: 70.3%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.39

MTL: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	CHI	MTL
Season SV%	0.909	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	28	24	4	85.7%	2.74	1	-1.26
MTL	Jacob Fowler	21	20	1	95.2%	1.96	0	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CHI at home vs MTL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-23	CHI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.81
1	MTL	14	0	0.79
2	CHI	11	0	0.85
2	MTL	20	0	1.20
3	CHI	5	0	0.31
3	MTL	11	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown